Non-CO₂ Climate Effects Advisory

Beyond CO₂:
Aviation’s Full Climate Impact


Contrails. NOx. Water vapour. The climate impact of aviation
extends well beyond the carbon it burns.


The Challenge

CO₂ is only
part of the 
problem

Aviation’s contribution to climate change cannot be measured in carbon alone. Non-CO₂ effects — contrails, NOx-induced ozone, water vapour, and aerosols — account for up to two-thirds of aviation’s total climate impact. Yet they remain largely unaddressed in regulatory frameworks and corporate sustainability strategies. The science is advancing fast. The policy pressure is building.

A Gap Regulators Are Closing

A Gap Regulators Are Closing

EU and ICAO frameworks are beginning to incorporate non-CO₂ effects into climate obligations. Organisations without a baseline assessment are already behind.
Contrails: The Largest Known Non-CO₂ Effect

Contrails: The Largest Known Non-CO₂ Effect

Persistent contrails currently contribute more to aviation's warming than any other non-CO₂ effect. A small share of flights drives a disproportionately large share of that impact.
Acting Under Uncertainty

Acting Under Uncertainty

The science is advancing fast. Engaging now — with experts who understand both the evidence and its limits — is the only defensible position
Our Methodology

From measurement
to assessment

ENV-ISA combines validated atmospheric modelling, emissions data, and EU-funded research participation to deliver rigorous, science-based non-CO₂ climate impact assessments — quantified, comparable, and policy-ready.

01

Emissions Inventory & Characterisation

Compute aircraft fuel burn, NOx, water vapour, soot, and particulate emissions using validated methods — including ICAO engine databank inputs and trajectory-level data. The foundation for any meaningful non-CO₂ assessment.

02

Contrail Formation & Persistence Modelling

Apply the Schmidt-Appleman criterion and ice-supersaturation analysis to identify contrail-forming conditions along flight routes. Assess persistent contrail frequency, duration, and radiative forcing potential using established atmospheric models.

03

Climate Impact Quantification

Translate non-CO₂ emissions into climate metrics — effective radiative forcing (ERF), temperature response, and CO₂-equivalent comparison — using current best-practice frameworks including GWP100, GTP, and ATR20 approaches.

04

Mitigation Scenario Analysis

Evaluate the climate benefit of operational changes — altitude adjustments, route optimisation, SAF integration — against fuel and CO₂ trade-offs. A structured basis for climate-cost-efficient decision-making.

What We Assess

NON-CO₂ effects
matters

We assess the full range of non-CO₂ aviation climate effects using internationally validated methods, tailored to your regulatory context and operational profile.

Contrails
Persistent contrail formation & radiative forcing
NOx
Ozone & methane effects at cruise altitude
Water Vapour
Cirrus cloud enhancement
Soot & PM
Aerosol-cloud interactions
SO₂
Sulphate aerosol effects
CO₂ eq.
Effective radiative forcing & equivalence
Integrated Capabilities

Aviation tools
for climate

Contrail formation & persistence modelling (Schmidt-Appleman, ISSR analysis)
NOx-ozone climate impact assessment at cruise altitude
Climate metrics calculation: ERF, GWP100, GTP, ATR20
Emissions inventory: NOx, H₂O, soot, PM per route or fleet
Mitigation scenario analysis: route & altitude optimisation
Policy advisory & regulatory reporting integration
SAF non-CO₂ benefit assessment
Why organisations choose ENV-ISA

For NON-CO₂
from the inside

01

Active EU Research Contributor

ENV-ISA is a contractor to EASA on ANCEN, the EU's dedicated non-CO₂ expert network. We don't follow the science; we participate in producing it.

02

UNIC & BeCoM Consortium Member

Active participant in two EU Horizon Europe research consortia advancing contrail prediction, emissions measurement, and climate-optimised trajectory planning.

03

CO₂ and Non-CO₂ Integration

We assess carbon management, local air quality, and non-CO₂ effects together — never in silos.

04

Science That Holds Under Scrutiny

Our assessments are built to withstand regulatory review, third-party verification, and stakeholder challenge.

Recent Engagements

Where we contribute

Ongoing

UNIC — Understanding Non-CO₂ Impacts of Aviation

EU Horizon Europe

European Research Consortium

  • In-flight and ground-based emissions measurement at cruise altitude
  • Advanced atmospheric modelling of contrail and cloud formation
  • Advancing scientific understanding of real-world non-CO₂ effects
Ongoing

BeCoM — Beyond CO₂ Mitigation

EU Horizon Europe

European Research Consortium

  • Improved persistent contrail prediction through enhanced ice cloud physics
  • Integration of non-CO₂ effects into climate-optimised flight trajectory planning
  • Policy-driven flight planning frameworks for airlines and ANSPs
Flight path at altitude
Atmospheric research
Aerosol or cloud formation
Research & Innovation

ANCEN: Aviation NON-CO₂ Expert Network

EU Horizon Europe · EASA · 2024–2027

ENV-ISA serves as contractor to EASA on ANCEN — coordinating expert working groups and contributing directly to the technical outputs that define how Europe understands and regulates non-CO₂ aviation climate effects. Our participation spans contrail radiative forcing, NOx-ozone interactions, uncertainty frameworks, and policy advisory to EU institutions and ICAO CAEP.

ENV-ISA is a contractor to EASA on ANCEN — coordinating expert activities and contributing technical outputs that inform EU and international non-CO₂ aviation policy.
Read the ANCEN Annual Report

Common Impact Metrics

Development of shared CO₂ vs non-CO₂ comparison frameworks: GWP100, GTP, ATR20.

SAF & Fuel Composition

How fuel composition changes affect soot emissions and downstream contrail-cirrus formation.

Uncertainty Framework

Structured approach enabling defensible assessments where scientific consensus is still developing.

Ready to assess your organisation’s
full climate impact?

Talk to an ENV-ISA non-CO₂ experts. We’ll map your exposure, identify your assessment options, and outline a methodology grounded in the latest EU research.